A Leading markets analyst has promised that there is light at the end of the economic tunnel for Scotland and the United Kingdom.

And fortunately that light is not attached to an express train coming towards us in the opposite direction.

That was the good news from leading markets analyst Nick Parsons when he addressed members of the Elite Ayrshire Business Circle at their latest meeting this week hosted by the Clydesdale Bank Financial Solutions Centre in Ayr.

However, the bad news from Nick was that things are going to get even worse before they start to improve.

We are in the midst of the worst recession since the 1980s (at least) with property prices and consumer spending worst hit.


Unemployment will rise by a further 700,000 and retail sales will continue to fall.

There will also be further falls in average house prices, although they will not be so dramatic in Scotland, as they were never so over-valued here as in other parts of the UK. They will continue to fall until they return to their historic ratio of 2.9 times annual earnings.

Nick Parsons reassured his audience that economic growth will resume at the beginning of next year, although it will not be the stellar growth fuelled by excessive government and household debt experienced in the years before the recession hit, but a steady and sustainable growth of around 2% per annum.

Nick Parsons joined nabCapital (like Clydesdale Bank, part of the National Australia Bank Group) in 2007 as Head of Markets Strategy, based in London.

He has 24 years experience in Foreign Exchange and Money Markets, having previously held posts as Global Head FX Research, Head of Macro Research and Group Economist.

He is a regular contributor to CNBC, BBC, Sky, and Bloomberg News, and is frequently quoted by major newspapers and news agencies.

(GK/JM)