With new build housing output currently plummeting, the timescales for achieving the Scottish Government's ambitious housing targets were shattered today by new recovery scenarios released by Homes for Scotland.

Their analysis shows that, without a significant economic re-inflation programme of public investment combined with concerted UK-wide action to tackle the current mortgage crisis, it could take several decades for supply levels to reach the goal of 35,000 units per annum - many years behind schedule.

The home building industry is predicting the number of new homes being built in Scotland next year will fall to their lowest level since 1924 (outside the war years).The scenarios also show that it could potentially take up to 17 years for output levels just to recover to those of 2007 if trends from previous decades were blindly repeated.


Jonathan Fair, Chief Executive of Homes for Scotland, the organisation which represents companies building 95% of the country's new homes, believes that strategic changes and fundamental interventions now require to be made and said: "Our analysis confirms the devastating effect the credit crunch is having on the delivery of much needed new homes across all tenures in Scotland. These scenarios must be a wake-up call to anyone who thinks the housing market is simply experiencing a 'necessary' short-term correction."

Fair called for immediate further action by the Scottish Government in light of the figures released today. He said: "Westminster has continued to dither in implementing focused monetary and fiscal measures to address these problems. In contrast, where it has the ability to do so, the Scottish Government has already demonstrated that it is prepared to listen, then act swiftly and those early actions were welcome.

"Nevertheless, with the severity of the situation facing us and the prospects for achieving housing aspirations, even in the medium term, appearing very remote indeed the Scottish Government needs to be even bolder.

“Very significant sums of public investment are required to be pumped into housing provision, combined with new innovative approaches and mortgage products from within the private sector. Only then, collectively, will we be able to stave off the housing shortage Scotland is now staring in the face."

(GK/JM)