The report by leading consultancy BiGGAR Economics 'Land: the Role of Scale in Delivering a Just Transition' examines the contribution rural estates make in delivering key public policy areas – and how the fragmentation of land use and ownership will jeopardise meeting targets on woodland creation, peatland restoration, housing and net zero.
The research observes that peatland restoration needs to increase by over 300% to reach the Scottish Government's target of 250,000ha of restored peatland by 2030.
Currently, large-scale peatland restoration projects of more than 200ha – such as those carried out on rural estates – account for 57% of the 42,300ha of peatland that has been restored since 2013. Only 25% of the target has been achieved through small-scale projects of less than 100ha.
On forestry, the report authors find that since 2015, 45,000ha of woodland has been planted with support from the Forestry Grant Scheme. The Scottish Government aims to create enough woodland to cover 21% of Scotland's total area by 2032 - but at the current rate of delivery, it would take almost 48 years to reach this target through only small-scale projects of 0-50 hectares.
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The need to increase housebuilding is also examined in the report, with the annual requirement for 26,000 new homes/year not being met in any year since 2007/8. At least five rural estates are known to be leading large-scale housing developments of up to 5,000 homes. These estates include some of the largest in Scotland (i.e. 40,000ha +). This is in addition to the many scale housing projects being carried out by large landowners in communities across Scotland.
The report was commissioned by Scottish Land & Estates, the rural business organisation. It was published today and was unveiled to MSPs at a parliamentary event hosted by Kate Forbes, MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch.
Kate Forbes MSP said: "There is no doubt that land-based businesses can make significant contributions to achieving Scotland's public policy objectives, including woodland creation, peatland restoration and renewable energy.
"The delivery of these projects at scale is going to be absolutely critical if we are to achieve these targets at the required pace and quality of delivery."
Sarah-Jane Laing, chief executive of Scottish Land & Estates, said: "Ambitious targets have been set by the Scottish Government across net zero, nature and housing and if there is any hope of these being met, working at scale is the best way to achieve that.
"It is clear from the research that fragmentation of land use ownership will both reduce the pace of delivery and also the level of investment available. Delivery of homes by large landowners, and large-scale projects for nature involving single or fewer landowners, tend to be less complex, contain fewer risks and are quicker to deliver than projects with governance agreements between multiple parties.
"Landowners of all types and sizes are making a significant contribution to Scotland's wellbeing but if the government wants to meet its targets then it should be looking to retain or even increase scale. Forthcoming land reform proposals are likely to put delivery and investment at risk."
Shona Glenn, of BiGGAR Economics said: "Our research shows that delivering large-scale projects to work towards net zero and deliver other public policy objectives can generate a variety of benefits that might not otherwise be possible and is the most reliable route to a "just transition" for Scotland.
"At the current pace of delivery Scotland will not meet important targets for woodland creation, the rollout of renewables, peatland restoration or housing delivery. Increasing large-scale delivery offers the most realistic prospect for changing this."
